Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
