Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
